Previously, the European Championships were a straightforward tournament to understand, and a country’s route to participating in the finals was easy to work out. However, this isn’t necessarily the case anymore, and betting on who qualifies has become a more complex issue.
There was even a quirky instance in Group B of Euro 2024 Qualification, which meant that it would be preferable for the Republic of Ireland to lose their final qualification game so that they’d stand a chance at competing in the tournament through a backdoor route, exemplifying the current confusion.
However, in the case of Estonia, they still stand a chance of making it to Germany for the tournament finals despite only picking up one point and finishing dead last in their qualifying group, but how can that be possible?
Why are Estonia in the playoffs at all? Let’s explore why they still stand a chance and why UEFA deemed this practical.
Why are Estonia in the playoffs?
The answer isn’t easy to explain. Many football fans believe UEFA has played around with tournament qualification so much that it has become quite problematic. In contrast, others feel it’s a great opportunity to welcome other nations to events they might not have otherwise dreamt of.
Tournament Expansion Has Played a Part
In 2016, France hosted the first-ever European Championships with 24 teams taking part, and the tournament turned out to be very successful. Let’s start with the point of view of the fans; more teams mean more games to watch, and which spectator doesn’t enjoy that at a major tournament?
Yes, the quality might deteriorate in certain fixtures slightly when lower-ranked nations take part, but for some countries it can be their best opportunity to feature at the event.
The odds of unfancied nations even getting to the showpiece event have typically been very unlikely, so UEFA wanted to address this and felt that expanding the tournament was the best way to do it. From what we’ve seen, some countries have excelled since the expanded format was introduced.
Take Iceland, for example; they pulled off some stunning results during EURO 2016 to shock the football world and show that there is real quality outside of the teams who usually make it.
UEFA wanted to expand the tournament so a greater number of teams could qualify and enjoy the festivities on a continental level. Not only this, but investment in the Icelandic academy and infrastructure has increased significantly since then.
Broadcasters and advertisers naturally didn’t oppose the expansion either because it was another route for them to make even more money. In many ways, it was a no-brainer, even if six groups made qualifying for the next round a little more complex.
Along Came the Nations League
Amidst the fervour for more teams taking part in competitive games, UEFA devised their new tournament, which has ties to Euros qualification – the UEFA Nations League. Many of the bigger nations view these games as glorified friendlies, but for smaller nations, it is now the perfect opportunity to make it to a major tournament.
Each European nation is ranked based on semi-recent results and put into pools to determine the quality of opponents they’ll face during the Nations League. For example, England are likely to face a side with the quality of France or Spain in their group, while San Marino could take on the likes of Andorra.
If you top your smaller group within the pool you’ve been assigned to, this could stand you in good stead should you not qualify via the traditional path. For teams in League A, however, there’s also the chance to win the Nations League overall.
For too long, countries like Liechtenstein have been the whipping boys of their EURO qualification groups to no avail. How can a country ever progress if they lose by five goals in every game?
They still often finish bottom of those groups, for the time being, but the introduction of the Nations League as an additional spectacle means they face similarly ranked sides elsewhere, which presents a chance for them to make it to a European Championship.
If you win your Nations League group against nations ranked similarly to you, you have a backdoor shot at the Euros playoffs if you fail during normal qualification. So, why are Estonia in the playoffs? Because this is exactly what happened to them.
Tall(inn) Order
For the aforementioned reasons, Estonia are still alive when it comes to Euros qualification, but the job in front of them looks a challenging one. The Baltic nation was drawn into Path A alongside Wales, Poland, and Finland, other Nations League group winners.
Their one-leg semi-final tie comes against Poland and is being played in Warsaw. As you’ll see on talkSPORT BET, the odds are stacked against Estonia, and it would be a stunning upset if they managed to pull it off. And even if they did, they’d have to travel to either Cardiff or Helsinki to battle it out with Wales or Finland, depending on who wins the other semi-final.
Undoubtedly, this is a lot to ask for a nation that has never really caused a stir on any global football stage, but it’s two games rather than an entire qualification campaign. Who knows what can happen with the right amount of inspiration and a slice of luck?
Despite their slim chances of making it through the semi-final, if you were to ask Estonian fans whether they’d have accepted these circumstances at the start of the qualification campaign, we’re sure they’d have said yes.
Should they make it to the EURO finals (have you checked out the outright Euro winner odds?), they’ll certainly be ranked among the three worst teams to compete in the event, not that those in Tallinn will care about that all too much. For them, getting there alone would be a monumental achievement. Be sure to check out our EURO 2024 winner betting markets and odds if you fancy backing Estonia or any other team to triumph in Germany this summer.
Now that you know why Estonia has upcoming matches to determine their Euros finals fate, we’d encourage you to explore the talkSPORT BET Safer Gambling Tool to keep in control of your gambling.
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