So-called ‘handicap’ racing is incredibly prominent in the UK and across the globe, with popular events of this type, including the iconic Grand National and Australia’s Melbourne Cup.
Handicap racing lets horses of variable ability compete fairly against one another, with weights allocated according to each runner’s age, gender, historic performances, and more.
But how exactly are handicaps set, and what steps can you take to pick a winner in this type of race? Here’s our comprehensive guide to help you select your next handicap winner.
What is the difference between a handicap and non-handicap race?
Let’s start by considering the difference between handicap and non-handicap races. This distinction is fairly simple, with the former requiring runners to carry additional weights to equalise the field and ensure that races are competitive.
This is based on the principle that the weight carried by each horse will affect the speed at which they gallop. So, the best-rated horse will be allocated the highest weight, with each subsequent runner carrying one pound less for every point that their handicap score is lower.
Conversely, non-handicap races do not compel horses to carry weights according to their official ratings.
However, there are still reasons why a horse may carry variable weights in non-handicap races, such as penalties for winning above a specific grade or an allowance for fillies below a certain age.
How do horses get a handicap mark?
Across the world, each horse racing authority or jurisdiction has its own official handicapping body. This entity is responsible for officially rating every single horse in training. In the UK, this body is the British Horse Racing Association (BHA).
To earn its initial rating or ‘handicap mark,’ a horse must fulfil one of two criteria, depending on which one occurs first.
More specifically, they’ll either have to record their maiden or novice victory or compete in three different races, after which they can contest handicap events based on the official rating that they receive.
This initial handicap rating is calculated in accordance with wider performance metrics. For example, the BHA will evaluate a runner’s performance in relation to the horses that they competed against, specifically those that already have official ratings.
This ensures that horses receive fair and meaningful handicap marks, which are based on detailed analysis of the performances and the quality of runners that they’ve competed against to date.
Handicapping example
To provide further context, let’s examine how a horse’s initial handicap mark may be set.
For example, a two-year-old novice may compete in his third jump race and secure a maiden victory. In doing so, he runs a horse with an official handicap rating of 75 into second place, prevailing by four clear lengths in the process.
The BHA may determine that each length (in terms of margin of victory) is equivalent to 1lb of weight. It may also be considered as a single increment of one in the runner’s eventual official rating.
So, in this example, the winning novice may be awarded an initial handicap mark of 79. This will have a direct impact on the weight that they carry in their next handicap race, while their mark will also be subject to constant change on a race-by-race basis (we’ll touch further on this later in the guide).
In terms of determining and allocating weight, there are maximum values for both flat and national hunt races. For flat races, the highest weight carried by the top-rated runner is usually 9st 10lbs, whereas this limit increases to 11st 2lbs for jump and steeplechase events. Handicaps will then be set within these limits, depending on the competing runners.
So, let’s say that a handicap race has runners competing with a rating band of between 66 and 80. In this case, the horse with the highest rating (80) may be asked to carry 9st 7lbs, with the weight comprising the jockey and his equipment.
If another runner has a rating of 78, he will be asked to carry precisely two pounds less (9st 5lbs). Conversely, a 70-rated horse will carry exactly 10 pounds less (8st 11lbs).
At the other end of the spectrum, any 66-rated horses will carry 14 pounds less than the favourite (8st 7lbs), equalising their chances of being competitive in the race.
As the race draws closer, a trainer may choose to enter a horse rated 65 or lower. However, the horse would also be required to carry the minimum weight of 8st 7lbs, putting it at a distinct disadvantage compared to less fancied runners in the field.
How does a horse change their handicap mark?
A horse’s handicap mark (or official rating) fluctuates throughout its career. This is because it’s constantly being amended to reflect its form and recent performances, with the BHA publishing revised ratings weekly.
So, a horse that embarks on a winning streak will see its official rating rise incrementally, depending on its margin of victory, the quality of the runners it defeats, and the grade at which it races.
Conversely, the BHA may drop the rating of horses that struggle to place in races or justify their existing handicap mark.
However, this isn’t a given even if a horse performs demonstrably below its rating, as the BHA will consider a range of factors such as the going, draw, race distance, pace and how the competing runners fared.
There are also instances in which the handicapper chooses to alter a horse’s official rating even if it hasn’t raced during the previous week. This will be caused by the subsequent performances of horses that it ran against in its previous race, whether these are good or bad.
For example, let’s say a novice colt finished second and one length behind a 76-rated horse in his previous race. He subsequently earns a handicap mark of 75 ahead of his next race in a month.
The following week, however, the horse that narrowly defeated him runs again and beats a rival with a handicap mark of 80. His romps home by a margin of five clear lengths, too, so his official rating is immediately upgraded to 85.
As a result, the BHA may re-evaluate the novice colt’s previous win and increase his rating from 75 to 84. In theory, this will create an updated handicap mark that better reflects the magnitude of his previous performance and current ability.
Where does the weight go?
Once it has been determined precisely what weight a horse will carry in a particular race, the question that remains is how this weight is distributed.
The weight primarily comprises the jockey and their equipment, including gloves, goggles, helmets, vests, and whips. Additionally, depending on a horse’s handicap mark and overall weight limit, weights may be strapped to its saddle if necessary.
Regardless, the weight carried by horses is concentrated around the jockey and saddle, creating fair and even distribution for runners.
How do you pick a handicap winner?
When analysing horse racing odds in handicap events, it can be difficult to immediately identify value and make informed selections.
This is because handicap marks and the total weight carried by runners have a direct impact on their performance while compelling you to review more complex datasets. With that in mind, here are some tips to help you pick a handicap winner:
- Don’t be swayed by the highest-rated horse: While favoured runners with higher ratings may be tempting from a betting perspective, they’ll often carry significant weight. They may also be carrying more weight than during their previous outing, so it can be hard to predict their performance or wager at optimal odds. Conversely, horses in the middle section of the weight allocation may perform more consistently and have greater scope for improvement, so be sure to review all competing runners before picking a winner.
- Factor in distance and conditions: If a horse has built their handicap mark over races of a similar length, this official rating becomes less meaningful in instances where they’re asked to compete over shorter or longer distances. This is especially true when horses that are used to competing in longer races suddenly participate in sprints. Similarly, you should factor in the track conditions when picking handicap winners, as fast horses tend to perform better in firm or good-to-firm going regardless of their rating and may offer enhanced value here.
- Consider outsiders in races with larger fields: We’ve already touched on how you shouldn’t be swayed by the highest-rated horses, while outsider runners can also offer enhanced value in handicap races with larger fields. Take the Ascot Stakes, for example, which often dominates the early Royal Ascot odds and regularly features at least 20 competitors. In this race, the starting favourite has only prevailed twice in the last 20 iterations, while 78% of runners during this time boasted an official rating of 72+ after their last win. So, this type of field is highly competitive, and horses carrying less weight may have a distinct advantage.
Hopefully, this guide will help to inform your picks ahead of popular handicap races such as the Ascot Stakes and Melbourne Cup, while you can also use talkSPORT BET’s Safer Gambling Portal to manage your bankroll and stay in control of your wagering activity.
